Politics

06
Jun
11:32 UTC

Mali Tactical: Colonel Assimi Goita to be sworn-in as President at Bamako’s CICB at 10:00 (local time) on June 7; maintain vigilance

Please be advised

  • An official statement from June 3 states that Colonel Assimi Goita is slated to be inaugurated as Mali’s President at the Bamako International Conference Center (CICB) at 10:00 (local time) on June 7. 
  • Reports also indicate that Goita will formally appoint June 5 Movement – Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP) leader Choguel Maiga as PM during the ceremony.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The inauguration takes place amid heightened tensions after the arrest and dismissal of former transitional President Bah N’Daw and former PM Moctar Ouane on May 24-25, which was perceived by regional and international stakeholders as unconstitutional and as undermining efforts towards democratic transition. This led to Mali’s suspension from regional bodies and attracted worldwide criticism, notably from France, which suspended joint military operations with Mali. Nonetheless, the slated appointment of M5-RFP leader Maiga to the position of PM denotes Goita’s efforts to demonstrate his willingness to allow the participation of civilian leaders in the transition, mostly designed to abate concerns over his commitment to a democratic transition.
  2. FORECAST: Widespread international condemnation of Goita’s measures indicates that international heads of state are unlikely to attend the inauguration. However, the event is likely to be attended by numerous domestic political, religious, and civil society leaders supportive of Goita, and a heightened security presence is likely in the vicinity of the CICB since the early morning hours of June 7 and throughout the day. This is expected to include roadblocks and checkpoints near the venue, which are poised to create traffic disruptions.
  3. FORECAST: While the appointment of Maiga already seems to have appeased the M5-RFP supporters, other civil society activists and supporters of political actors excluded from the transition may organize spontaneous protests against the alleged unconstitutionality of the transition. The absence of anti-Goita protests over recent weeks suggests that these elements are already deterred from mobilizing, and should a spontaneous protest emerge it will likely attract low-to-mid dozens of participants, with the security forces likely refraining from forcibly dispersing such protest to avoid further international criticism. Meanwhile, M5-RFP supporters and pro-Goita elements may also gather in the vicinity of the CICB during the inauguration to display alleged public support for the transition under Goita’s leadership, with mid-to-high hundreds possibly participating in a peaceful protest.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Bamako on June 7 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the CICB during the morning and early afternoon hours due to the planned inauguration and the potential for associated protests.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Bamako, Mali
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

Please be advised

  • An official statement from June 3 states that Colonel Assimi Goita is slated to be inaugurated as Mali’s President at the Bamako International Conference Center (CICB) at 10:00 (local time) on June 7. 
  • Reports also indicate that Goita will formally appoint June 5 Movement – Rally of Patriotic Forces (M5-RFP) leader Choguel Maiga as PM during the ceremony.

Assessments & Forecast

  1. The inauguration takes place amid heightened tensions after the arrest and dismissal of former transitional President Bah N’Daw and former PM Moctar Ouane on May 24-25, which was perceived by regional and international stakeholders as unconstitutional and as undermining efforts towards democratic transition. This led to Mali’s suspension from regional bodies and attracted worldwide criticism, notably from France, which suspended joint military operations with Mali. Nonetheless, the slated appointment of M5-RFP leader Maiga to the position of PM denotes Goita’s efforts to demonstrate his willingness to allow the participation of civilian leaders in the transition, mostly designed to abate concerns over his commitment to a democratic transition.
  2. FORECAST: Widespread international condemnation of Goita’s measures indicates that international heads of state are unlikely to attend the inauguration. However, the event is likely to be attended by numerous domestic political, religious, and civil society leaders supportive of Goita, and a heightened security presence is likely in the vicinity of the CICB since the early morning hours of June 7 and throughout the day. This is expected to include roadblocks and checkpoints near the venue, which are poised to create traffic disruptions.
  3. FORECAST: While the appointment of Maiga already seems to have appeased the M5-RFP supporters, other civil society activists and supporters of political actors excluded from the transition may organize spontaneous protests against the alleged unconstitutionality of the transition. The absence of anti-Goita protests over recent weeks suggests that these elements are already deterred from mobilizing, and should a spontaneous protest emerge it will likely attract low-to-mid dozens of participants, with the security forces likely refraining from forcibly dispersing such protest to avoid further international criticism. Meanwhile, M5-RFP supporters and pro-Goita elements may also gather in the vicinity of the CICB during the inauguration to display alleged public support for the transition under Goita’s leadership, with mid-to-high hundreds possibly participating in a peaceful protest.

Recommendations

Those operating or residing in Bamako on June 7 are advised to maintain vigilance in the vicinity of the CICB during the morning and early afternoon hours due to the planned inauguration and the potential for associated protests.

COUNTRY RISK LEVEL High
AFFECTED AREA Bamako, Mali
INCIDENT RISK LEVEL Medium
STRENGTH OF SOURCE Confirmed

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