Geopolitical Predictive Analysis – July 2019

August 19

Boris Johnson becomes UK Prime Minister. Tensions surrounding potential no-deal Brexit to increase.

Peace agreement in CAR. Future uncertain as armed groups, civil society oppose deal.

Tensions continue over USA migrant crisis. Border crossings likely to decline in second half of 2019.

Japan-South Korea tensions. Failure of dialogue liable to sustain protests over export curbs, wartime issues.

Challenges of ruling party in Turkey. Domestic and geopolitical developments to trigger dissent in ruling party.